Key takeaways
- Skew uses Hyperliquid's HIP-4 outcome markets. Each contract's own rules define the result and settlement.
- Above/below trades are available where listed. Inside/outside range trades are planned and are not currently listed.
- Choose an available asset, strike and expiry. A bullish or bearish view alone is not a complete trade specification.
- Read the contract's price source, calculation window, equality rule and void rule before placing an order.
How Skew uses Hyperliquid's HIP-4 outcome markets
Skew is an application for trading prediction markets on Hyperliquid. It uses HIP-4, Hyperliquid's framework for fully collateralized outcome contracts. These contracts support prediction markets and other instruments with bounded payouts.
For a price-at-expiry view, start with an asset, a strike and an expiry listed in Skew, then choose the side that matches your condition. The Bitcoin walkthrough shows this process in the mainnet app, from selecting a contract to preparing an order draft.
- Hyperliquid provides the outcome-token and trading infrastructure through HIP-4.
- Skew lists markets and provides the interface for choosing an asset, strike, expiry and side.
- The selected contract's rules specify its price source, calculation window, equality treatment and fallback. Those details determine settlement; sharing a protocol does not make every market's rules the same.
1. Turn a view into a market question
Start with the asset, the level and the deadline. “Bitcoin will be above $80,000 at Friday's expiry” is different from “Bitcoin will touch $80,000 at any point before Friday.” The first is an expiry condition; the second depends on the path taken before expiry.
Skew offers chains with multiple strikes and expiries. Choose from the contracts actually listed in the app; a page example does not establish that an exact strike and date are available.
Ways to express your view
A directional view, a range view and a breakout view describe different expectations. Translate each into a condition on the settlement price at a specific expiry. The Bitcoin levels below are hypothetical, not current quotes or a list of available contracts.
| Your view | Example at Friday's expiry | Skew availability |
|---|---|---|
| Above or below a level — bullish or bearish | Bullish: Bitcoin finishes above $80,000. Bearish: it finishes at or below $80,000. In the documented BTC weekly above-strike contract, these correspond to Yes and No respectively. | Available where listed, subject to current strikes and expiries. |
| Inside or outside a range | Inside: Bitcoin finishes within a $75,000–$85,000 range. Outside: it finishes beyond that range in either direction. The contract's boundary rules determine how equality is handled. | Planned; not currently available. |
| Breakout or breakdown | An upside breakout view could be expressed as Bitcoin finishing above $85,000. For a downside view, choose the opposing side of an above-strike contract at your chosen level and check its equality rule. | An expiry-based view can use current above/below contracts. Breakout is a way to describe the view, not a separate contract type. |
Finishing inside a range does not mean staying inside it throughout the trade. Likewise, touching or crossing a breakout level earlier does not guarantee a winning expiry outcome: the price can return before expiry. These expressions are decided by the contract's computed settlement price and rules.
2. Separate your cost, payout and profit
For a fully paid purchase, the share price multiplied by the number of shares is the purchase cost before fees. The ordinary winning payout is $1 per share. Profit is the payout minus the purchase cost and applicable fees; a $1 payout is not $1 of profit.
If you buy 100 shares at $0.40, the purchase costs $40 before fees. A winning settlement pays $100, for a $60 gain before fees. A losing settlement pays $0, for a $40 loss before fees. These are hypothetical numbers, not a quote or a forecast.
Buying these fully paid shares does not create an ongoing margin position. You can still lose the full purchase cost and fees. The displayed share price is a market price, not a verified probability that an outcome will happen.
Can I express a bearish view without an ongoing margin position?
Yes. A fully paid purchase of No shares in a Skew above-strike contract can express a bearish view when a listed strike and expiry match your view. You pay for the shares up front, without borrowing the underlying asset or maintaining margin for that position.
For example, under the documented Bitcoin weekly rule, No in an above-$80,000 contract wins if the computed settlement price is at or below $80,000 at expiry, including equality. A price dip earlier is not enough. Your maximum loss on the shares is their purchase cost; applicable fees and costs also affect the net result. The $80,000 strike here is hypothetical.
3. Check exactly how the outcome is decided
The published Skew rules calculate a final price from a defined window ending at expiry. The source and calculation differ between market families. A chart's last visible price or an exchange price from another source may not be the settlement price.
For the documented Bitcoin weekly above-strike markets, Yes wins only if the computed price is strictly greater than the strike. At exactly the strike, No wins. The weekly market uses Pyth data over the final 90 seconds ending at expiry; do not apply that window to every other market.
If the required price data is insufficient, the documented process can retry and ultimately void the market. Both sides then settle at $0.50 per share. This is not necessarily a refund of what you paid. Resolution can occur after the expiry time.
4. Choose whether to hold or seek an earlier exit
Holding until settlement exposes the position to the contract's final outcome and void rules. Before settlement, an exit requires a trade at an available price. Execution depends on liquidity, order size and the market's trading status; you cannot assume an immediate exit at your chosen price.
Review the order details and costs in the app, and read the market rules and trading risks. Product availability and access are separate questions: an asset listed by Skew does not mean every person can trade it.
Sources & method
The HIP-4 explanation uses Hyperliquid's published outcome-market mechanics and Skew's public documentation, checked on October 28, 2026. Skew's mainnet environment and product scope are confirmed by its product team; exact settlement terms come from each market's rules. The linked walkthrough records an order draft, not an executed trade. The expression map distinguishes current above/below contracts from planned range contracts; breakout describes an expiry-based view, not a separate contract type. Price levels and purchase examples are hypothetical. It does not claim a live quote, a guaranteed exit or investment performance.
- Hyperliquid HIP-4: outcome-market mechanics
- Skew market rules
- Market families and settlement sources
- Bitcoin weekly: expiry, price window and void rules
Examples explain mechanics, not expected returns. Trading can result in loss. Read the trading risks.
Check the actual market.
Review the available strikes, expiries and contract rules in Skew. Access depends on eligibility and location.
Open Skew