Key takeaways
- Match a level-and-date view directly: a Skew outcome can fit “BTC above $80,000 at Friday's expiry” when the listed contract and its rules match your view.
- Receive the full ordinary winning payout if the condition wins, even just beyond the threshold. A conventional call or put can be in the money and still fail to recover its purchase premium.
- Calculate the gross winning payout upfront: winning shares × $1. Profit is that payout minus the purchase cost and applicable costs.
- The tradeoff is a capped payout. Both outcome shares and fully paid long options can lose their entire purchase cost; equal budgets do not imply equal exposure, odds of profit or expected returns.
When can outcomes be a better fit than calls or puts?
- Express a precise level-and-date view. A view such as “BTC will finish above $80,000 on Friday” maps directly to a matching Skew contract's strike, expiry and Yes side. The final computed price and the contract's rules determine the result.
- Receive the full winning payout even just beyond the threshold. A winning Yes share in an above-strike contract ordinarily pays $1 whether the final computed price is slightly or far above the strike. In the hypothetical equal-$200 purchases below, settlement at $81,000 produces a $200 outcome profit while the call loses $100, before fees. Those results depend on the stated prices and sizes.
- Know the ordinary winning payout upfront. Multiply the shares bought by $1 to calculate the gross winning payout. Subtract the purchase cost and applicable fees and other costs to calculate profit. The payout does not depend on how far into the winning region the final price finishes.
The tradeoff is that the outcome payout is capped: a larger move can make a call or put more valuable while the outcome's ordinary winning payout stays fixed. A losing outcome can lose the entire purchase cost, and special settlement rules such as a void can change the payout. Fully paid long options also have premium-limited position loss; that feature is not unique to Skew.
Compare the payoff you are buying
Skew's outcome contracts have binary-option payoffs. This comparison is with conventional calls and puts, not with every kind of option.
A call gives its holder a right to buy under the contract's terms; a put gives a right to sell. A cash-settled option converts its exercise value into a cash result. Here, “conventional options” means a purchased call or put, sometimes called a vanilla option. Short options and multi-leg spreads have different obligations and payoffs.
A price target is your view. A strike is a contract term. A breakeven includes what you paid. These can be three different numbers: being right about direction does not by itself establish a profit.
| Decision | Skew above-strike outcome | Conventional call or put |
|---|---|---|
| What decides value at expiry? | Whether the specified condition wins under its rules | The amount the call or put is in the money, multiplied by its underlying exposure |
| What does a larger move change? | The ordinary winning payout stays $1 per share | A call gains expiry value above its strike; a put gains expiry value below it |
| What can I lose? | The full cost of the purchased shares, plus applicable costs | The full premium for the purchased option, plus applicable costs; other positions or assets created on exercise have their own risks |
| What happens exactly at the strike? | Under the documented BTC weekly rule, Yes loses and No wins | Both a call and a put have zero intrinsic value at their strike |
| How is the result delivered? | Settlement follows the outcome's source, timing and fallback rules | Exercise style and settlement method depend on the specific option |
| Can I exit earlier? | A sale requires liquidity and execution at an available price | A sale also requires liquidity and execution; exercise is a separate right |
Two alternative purchases with the same $200 budget
The following bullish and bearish examples use an $80,000 BTC strike and an assumed common expiry. All premiums and share prices are hypothetical. Each column is a separate fully paid purchase held to ordinary expiry settlement, with no other positions. The examples are not quotes, recommendations or a claim that these exact trades are available.
For the conventional option, the reference product is Deribit's BTC USDC linear option. One contract represents 1 BTC; our example uses 0.1 contract, or 0.1 BTC of exposure. Its European exercise occurs at expiry. An in-the-money option delivers a future that immediately settles into USDC, giving the cash result used here.
- Outcome purchase: 400 Yes shares for the bullish view, or 400 No shares for the bearish view, at an assumed $0.50 each. Cost: $200.
- Option purchase: 0.1 BTC of call exposure for the bullish view, or put exposure for the bearish view, at an assumed premium of $2,000 per BTC. Cost: 0.1 × $2,000 = $200.
- Both columns receive the same hypothetical settlement-price input to isolate payoff shape. Actual settlement prices can differ: Skew's documented BTC weekly rule uses a 90-second Pyth window; Deribit uses a 30-minute index average ending at 08:00 UTC.
- Dollar amounts represent USDC at an assumed $1 value. Every payout is gross, and every result is payout minus the $200 purchase cost, before fees and other costs.
Matching the budget does not match the exposure or likelihood of profit. The assumed purchase prices drive the comparison; different quotes change the results and breakevens.
Bullish view: above $80,000 at expiry
The Yes shares pay $400 in total if the computed price is strictly above $80,000. The call's gross cash result is 0.1 × max(settlement price − $80,000, 0). Subtract $200 from either payout to get the result before fees.
| Assumed final price | 400 Yes shares | 0.1 BTC call exposure |
|---|---|---|
| $75,000 | $0 payout; −$200 result | $0 payout; −$200 result |
| $80,000 — at strike | $0 payout; −$200 result | $0 payout; −$200 result |
| $81,000 | $400 payout; +$200 result | $100 payout; −$100 result |
| $82,000 | $400 payout; +$200 result | $200 payout; $0 result |
| $84,000 | $400 payout; +$200 result | $400 payout; +$200 result |
| $90,000 | $400 payout; +$200 result | $1,000 payout; +$800 result |
At $81,000, the outcome purchase gains $200 while the call loses $100 despite having a positive payout. The call breaks even at $82,000 before fees. At $90,000, it gains $800 while the outcome gain stays $200. These are consequences of the assumed prices and sizes, not evidence that one instrument has a higher expected return.
Bearish view: at or below $80,000 at expiry
No shares in the documented above-strike contract win at or below $80,000, including equality. The put's gross cash result is 0.1 × max($80,000 − settlement price, 0). Each alternative again costs $200.
| Assumed final price | 400 No shares | 0.1 BTC put exposure |
|---|---|---|
| $70,000 | $400 payout; +$200 result | $1,000 payout; +$800 result |
| $75,000 | $400 payout; +$200 result | $500 payout; +$300 result |
| $78,000 | $400 payout; +$200 result | $200 payout; $0 result |
| $79,000 | $400 payout; +$200 result | $100 payout; −$100 result |
| $80,000 — at strike | $400 payout; +$200 result | $0 payout; −$200 result |
| $84,000 | $0 payout; −$200 result | $0 payout; −$200 result |
At exactly $80,000, No wins while the put has no intrinsic value. The put breaks even at $78,000 before fees. A deeper fall can produce a larger put payout; the outcome payout remains fixed. A put's gain is finite because the underlying price cannot fall below zero in this example.
An earlier touch is different from the expiry result
Suppose Bitcoin rallies above $80,000 during the week but both example settlement inputs finish at $79,000. The Yes shares and call each pay $0: both lose the $200 purchase cost before fees if held to expiry. Similarly, a dip below the strike followed by settlement above it can leave both the No purchase and put with no payout.
An earlier sale could produce a different result, but the expiry tables do not predict resale prices or guarantee liquidity. Call and put premiums can change with time remaining, implied volatility and the underlying price. Outcome-share quotes also change as the market reassesses the condition; they are not immune to the passage of time.
European-style exercise means exercise at expiry. American-style exercise permits earlier exercise under its terms; it does not automatically create a touch-triggered payout. Use the selected instrument's rules rather than treating all options as identical.
Include fees, settlement rules and account conditions
Fees, spreads and execution costs reduce the displayed results. Compare the actual purchase quote and closing or settlement charges for each product. The worked tables intentionally omit these costs; they do not establish which venue is cheaper.
For the documented Skew BTC weekly contract, insufficient data can lead to a $0.50-per-share void settlement. With 400 shares that pays $200, giving a $0 result before fees at this example's $0.50 entry. At a different entry price, the same void payout can produce a gain or loss. It is not a purchase-price refund, and it does not define how the option venue handles a disruption.
The examples compare isolated, fully paid long positions. Deribit's specification states that a long option in a Standard Margin account is paid upfront without further margin requirements for that option. Borrowing to fund a purchase, selling options, using portfolio margin or holding other positions changes the account-level risk. Exercise into an asset or a continuing futures position can also create obligations outside the option itself.
When each can fit your view
- For a specific final-price condition and a fixed ordinary payout, consider an outcome contract whose listed strike, expiry and rules match that condition.
- For participation in a larger rise or fall beyond a strike, compare calls or puts and the premium needed to obtain that exposure.
- For a hedge against progressively larger losses in an existing holding, examine the amount of protection across price levels. A fixed binary payout does not automatically offset a growing loss.
- For a touch before a deadline, asset ownership or indefinite exposure, neither of these particular expiry examples is a complete substitute for the desired position.
Skew offers above/below chains where listed, subject to contract availability and access requirements. Check the actual strike, expiry, settlement terms and quote before deciding whether it matches your view.
Sources & method
Skew publishes this comparison about its own product. Sources were checked on October 28, 2026. We apply documented payoff mechanics to separate hypothetical $200 purchases, a common $80,000 strike and a shared settlement-price input. Deribit's BTC USDC linear option is the conventional-product reference; the numbers are not observed quotes or fills. Tables are calculated from the stated share count, BTC exposure and purchase costs. The common price input isolates payoff shape despite different real settlement calculations. This is not an independent venue review, a fee ranking, a backtest or an estimate of returns. No competitor trade was executed, and no availability claim is made for a particular reader.
- Bitcoin weekly: expiry, price window and void rules
- Deribit BTC USDC options: contract size, exercise and settlement
- Options Industry Council: long calls, payoff and breakeven
- Options Industry Council: long puts, payoff and breakeven
- Options Industry Council: options basics
- Options Industry Council: exercising options
Examples explain mechanics, not expected returns. Trading can result in loss. Read the trading risks.
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