Skew Learn
Underlying prices and outcome share prices
Why a reference price and a Yes or No share price answer different questions.
The underlying reference price describes an asset or index-related feed. An outcome share has a separate price for a specific condition, strike, and expiry. A reference chart cannot tell you what a Yes or No share costs.
Check the listed contract's current order book and rules in Skew. The outcome price can move even if the underlying quote barely changes, because time and the assessed likelihood of the stated condition also matter.
Example: one Bitcoin, two different prices
Suppose the Bitcoin reference price is $80,000 while a Yes share on a particular above-strike contract is offered at 0.35 USDC. The $80,000 describes the underlying asset; 0.35 USDC is the quoted cost of that outcome share. If the ordinary binary condition wins, it redeems for 1 USDC; if it loses, it redeems for zero. This is an illustration, not a current quote. Fees, spread, and special settlement terms can change the result.
What to check next
Compare the reference feed with the contract's actual price source and the live Yes/No order book. A rising reference price does not by itself tell you whether an outcome share is cheap or expensive.
This is a general explanation. The current contract, quote, and settlement rules in the app govern a trade.
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